The author argues that despite Trump's popularity in the polls, he really has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. He also asserts that establishment candidates, Bush, Kasich, and Rubio, are much more likely to emerge victorious in the primaries. He brings up the point that past Republican nominees all contrast sharply with Trump and he has no real political experience. However, it is obvious that the Republican Party is falling apart and the political system is broken. Thus, I think Trump definitely has a strong chance of winning, since he is someone who doesn't think or act like our current politicians. Additionally, the blue-collar faction of the Republican Party rallies around Trump while the white-collar faction remains split between the big establishment candidates. However, if more candidates drop out and the establishment can rally behind one candidate, Trump will definitely face much stronger competition. But, as of now, I believe Trump's chances of winning the Republican primary are very potent.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/10/21/the-insiders-bush-kasich-and-rubio-are-stronger-than-you-think/
I agree with you Howard that the only way for Trump to lose is if the Republican Party rallies behind one candidate rather than having 10 candidates all running for the coveted position. The only way for Trump to be defeated is if someone like Marco Rubio, who seems to be emerging in the polls recently as well, is advocated for by a majority of the Republican Party and others who are running drop out as well. Trump seems to be doing well in the polls; however, another non-establisehd candidate, Ben Carson, is also increasing his poll numbers. I guess only time will time what will happen to the tenuous Republican Party.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Howard that Trump surely has a strong change at winning despite his lack of experience. The article states that he cannot win by comparing him to conservative Republicans with strong political ideologies and experience. However, what the author fails to take into account is that despite Trump's lack of experience, he is still at the top of the polls because of the change people want in their governance. The system is flawed and perhaps America believes that can change with a president that doesn't have a political background. Nevertheless, Bush, Kasich, and Rubio's presidential bids are a strong factor to consider in this election despite them having significantly less supporters. Collectively, they have a large pool of supporters who will most likely not flock to Trump if the three decide to drop out. With about 20% of the nation's support, they can throw the election in one candidate's favor if two decide to drop out. Therefore, if they all stay in the elections, Trump is very likely to win but if one, two, or all three of them drop out then the election is bound to have a different outcome.
ReplyDeleteI would have to agree with the author to a certain extent because it is true that Trump is unlike any other republican candidate as the others were "legitimate conservatives and ideologically committed, with well-established policy positions and strong Republican principles". Trump fails in the area of having well established policy positions and his arguments for how he is going to carry everything out is that he will "just do it". I agree that the polls may be in favor of Trump only because republican voters have not come to a set conclusion on who to vote for. Obviously, Trump is not invincible, however attempting to take him down is not something I see Ben Carson doing as he often takes his arguments one step too far and he doesn't wholly embrace Republican ideals.
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